Can South Africa Still Win WTC Final Against Australia Despite Conceding First Innings Lead?

The ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 final has been going on between South Africa and Australia. The reigning champions Australia, will be looking to defend the Test mace once again by beating the first-timers. However, after two days of play, the scenarios have been in favour of the Rainbow Nation. Temba Bavuma, after winning the toss, elected to field first, and the Proteas bowlers dominated the Aussie batters, bundling them for 212 runs.

Coming out to bat, South Africa fumbled against the likes of Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, and Pat Cummins. The Aussie skipper dismantled the Proteas batting order with 6 wickets. They were bowled out for 138 runs. In the second innings, Australia also lost wickets in quick succession and are 144/8 after the end of Day 2's play. South Africa's WTC chances are in their hands.

What are South Africa WTC Winning Scenarios?

SA vs AUS WTC final has not been worth watching as 28 wickets falling in just six ­sessions may say as much about how bowlers can adjust quicker to a one-off showpiece. The batters have had no say in the game so far; only two fifties have been scored in the SA vs AUS WTC final. South Africa WTC chances are in their own hands as the batters need to perform on the big occasions. Australia currently have a lead of 218 runs. Let's take a look at South Africa WTC winning scenario.

Bundle Out Australia Between 150-175

If South Africa can bundle out Australia for 250–275 runs in their second innings. It significantly tilts the match in South Africa’s favor, especially in a World Test Championship (WTC) Final scenario. If the pitch holds up well for batting on Day 4 and early Day 5, a solid fourth innings chase becomes possible. Bowling out Australia early gives more overs to chase. The middle order needs to have the temperament and technique to bat long under pressure. But South Africa needs to keep in mind the mistakes they made in the first innings and not repeat the same in the second.

Top order needs to fire

South Africa’s success hinges on their top-order stability. The likes of Aiden Markram, Ryan Rickelton, and Wiaan Mulder need to get runs in order to solidify South Africa WTC chances. They will need to see off the new ball and provide a platform. Markram, in particular, has been in outstanding form, and his ability to counter-attack while maintaining composure will be key.

If South Africa can post 70–100 runs without losing early wickets, they have a big chance to win. Aiden Markram and Ryan Rickelton did not have the best of starts. If the Rainbow Nation bundles out the Aussies quickly, the openers will have their time to spend at the crease to chase against a quality bowling attack. The top order batters have to be patient with the kind of attack Australia have and frustrate them and score runs on loose deliveries.

Weather Adaptability

Rain might occur on Day 3 of the WTC 2025 Final. According to AccuWeather, the weather forecast for the third day of the match between South Africa and Australia is partly sunny and hot in the morning, with 35 percent cloud cover as the day progresses. The afternoon could see temperatures dip to 29 degrees Celsius, with 91% cloud cover. However, the nighttime forecast does not look promising, with 97% cloud coverage predicted.

The South African batters need to be careful with cloudy weather as the ball with do a bit more movement than on other days, and they need to be cautious and play out the day without playing any bad strokes. It will be easier on Day 4 if Day 3 is washed out, and the momentum will be on South Africa's side. A warm afternoon in England is easier to bat and get runs, or chase a target.