NBA Draft Lottery Explained: What Is It and How Does It Work

Every year few weeks before the draft, the NBA holds the Draft Lottery to determine which teams will get the top picks in the upcoming draft. The teams participating in the lottery are all the teams that missed the playoffs in the season in order to determine the draft order.

The draft lottery system was started in 1985, with the lottery winner getting the first selection in the draft. The term lottery pick refers to a draft pick whose position is determined through the lottery while a non-playoff team touted to win in the lottery is called a lottery team.

Under current rules, the top four picks of the draft order are determined through a lottery system. The top four picks are decided among the 14 teams that do not make it to the playoffs. The team with the worst record or the team with the draft rights of the team with the worst record has the best chances of landing the top pick.

So, how does the NBA draft lottery work? In this article, we will explain how the NBA draft lottery works and how it helps the lottery teams stock up talents for their rosters.

What is the NBA Draft Lottery?

If you are wondering what is the NBA draft lottery, we are here to answer. The NBA draft lottery was started in 1985 for teams to determine the draft order for the NBA draft. The 14 teams that do not qualify for the playoffs have the chance to contend for the first four picks of the draft order. Usually, the team with the worst record or the team which has the draft rights of such team have the best chances of landing a higher draft pick.

After the top four positions are determined, the remainder of the first-round draft order is determined in inverse order of the win-loss record of the remaining teams, or the teams who had originally held the rights if they were traded. The draft order for the subsequent round of the draft is not determined by the lottery.

In 2019, the NBA changed the lottery odds, giving the bottom three teams an equal 14% chance of winning the top pick. Furthermore, it also increased the number of teams to be selected in the lottery from three to four.

In the heydays of the league, the NBA allowed territorial picks which would allow a team to draft a player from it's local area. If the team decides to use its territorial pick, it had to forgo its first-round pick in the draft.

In 1966, the league introduced the coin-flip method. Here, a coin-flip would between the worst teams from each conference determine which team would obtain the first overall draft. The team who lost the coin flip would get the first overall pick. The team which lost the coin flip would get the second pick and the rest of the first round picks were determined in reverse order of each team's win-loss record. Though the coin flip system gave an equal opportunity for the worst teams in each conference to have the first draft pick, if the two worst teams happen to be from the same conference, the second-worst team would have no chance of obtaining the first draft pick.

From 1985, the league introduced it's first variation of the lottery system. This was done to counter the accusations of teams deliberately tanking in the regular season to secure the worst record and consequently obtain the chance to contend for the first pick. The earliest variation of the lottery involved random drawing of an envelope from a hooper. The envelopes contained names of the non-playoff teams and the team whose envelope was drawn first would get the first overall pick. From 1987 onwards, the league modified the lottery system for only the first three picks to be determined through lottery. The first winner of the lottery were the New York Knicks in 1985, selecting Patrick Ewing as the first overall pick.

Despite efforts, the NBA continued receiving allegations of rigging the lottery system. So, in 1990, the league introduced the weighted lottery system, giving the team with the worst record the best chance of landing the first pick. The worst non-playoff team would have 11 chances of 66 to obtain the first pick. The second worst would have 10 chances, and so on. Similar to the envelope system, the weighted lottery system also allowed to determine the first three picks while the rest of the teams selected in reverse order of their win-loss records.

How Does the NBA Draft Lottery Work?

The NBA draft lottery takes place typically at the same time when the first or second round of the NBA Playoffs are commencing. The lottery pool consists of the teams that have failed to qualify for the playoffs, including the teams eliminated in the play-in tournament as well. The teams are seeded in order from worst to best record, with each team's seeding determining their odds of winning one of the lottery picks.

To determine the lottery picks, fourteen ping pong balls (numbered 1-14) are placed in a standard lottery machine and four balls are randomly selected one at a time from the lot. The balls are placed in the machine for 20 seconds to randomize before the first ball is drawn. The other three balls are then drawn after remixing for 10 seconds.

There are more than 1001 possible combinations for four balls to be picked amongst the 14 numbered ones. One combination (11-12-13-14, regardless of order) is deemed invalid. The remaining 1000 combinations are then distributed amongst the lottery contestants, as per their seed's assigned odds.

The balls drawn in determing each of the first four picks are returned to the lottery machine and can be drawn again. However, a team generally cannot win multiple picks. Hence, the drawing of a combination assigned to a team that has already won a pick is ignored and redrawn.

What are the Chances of Teams Winning?

Since 2019, the odds of each seed for winning the first pick are as follows:

• 40 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the No. 1 pick
• 140 combinations, 14.0% chance
• 140 combinations, 14.0% chance
• 125 combinations, 12.5% chance
• 105 combinations, 10.5% chance
• 90 combinations, 9.0% chance
• 75 combinations, 7.5% chance
• 60 combinations, 6.0% chance
• 45 combinations, 4.5% chance
• 30 combinations, 3.0% chance
• 20 combinations, 2.0% chance
• 15 combinations, 1.5% chance
• 10 combinations, 1.0% chance
• 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

When Does the NBA Draft Lottery Take Place?

The NBA Draft Lottery usually takes place in the month of May as the first or second round of the playoff commences. The drawing of the ping pong balls is conducted in a private ceremony, though closely observed by independent auditors and representatives from each teams.

The results are then presented in a televised program. Earlier, it was broadcasted as a short ceremony prior to halftime of an NBA playoff game but since the mid-2010s, it is presented as an hour-long special by ESPN. The order of the lottery is announced in reverse order, with the 14th pick to the first. Representatives from each lottery team are present at the lottery ceremony.

Who won the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery?

What came as a surprise for many, the Dallas Mavericks landed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA draft lottery despite having a 1.8% probability to have the same. This is the first time in the Mavs' franchise history that they have won the lottery.

With this pick, the Mavericks are expected to select Duke standout Cooper Flagg in the 2025 draft. The 6'9" freshman led Duke to the Final Four in March Madness and was named national player of the year as well. Flagg has averaged 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.2 assists in his college basketball season and has played in Team USA scrimmages against NBA stars.

How Did Dallas Mavericks Get Its First Pick?

The Dallas Mavericks only had a 1.8% chance of winning the first draft pick this year. However, the Mavs defeated the odds are now stand in an excellent position to select Cooper Flagg in the NBA draft next month. This is interesting since in the WNBA, the Dallas Wings also had the first draft pick to select Paige Bueckers in the 2025 WNBA draft.

The Mavs missed the playoffs, despite advancing to last year's NBA Finals. This season, the team had a 39-43 record, right after they lost their franchise player Luka Doncic. This was the time the Mavs had lost second-most games in franchise history. By drafting Flagg, the Mavs can have a great defensive player as well as an offensive talent, combining as a two-way player.

Notable Past NBA Draft Lottery Winners

In 1985, New York Knicks were the first team to receive the first overall pick from the lottery. With that, they selected Patrick Ewing as the No.1 overall pick. Here are some of the most notable No. 1 draft picks over the years: